"This is the first book I've read that concentrates on practical advice for forecasters who do actual forecasts. If you need to forecast with real world data and want to benefit from the experience of someone who has been doing it for years, read this book."

Tracy Clark
Associate Director
Bank One Economic Outlook Center
Arizona State University College of Business

Description:

Practical Business Forecasting will appeal to a wide range of academic, corporate, and consulting economists who have an interest or responsibilities in forecasting on a macroeconomic, financial market, industry, or individual company level.

The text discusses various methods of forecasting and alternative goals that might be desired. It then turns to a discussion of econometric and regression analysis, followed by material on time-series forecasting. It concludes with awide variety of practical forecasting applications.

The material in this text is written at a level for those who have some familiarity with basic statistics, but is not designed to be a high-level theoretical treatment. The emphasis of this book is on building practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. High-blown theories that result in subpar predictions are not covered. Similarly, some standard tests that actually tell the practitioner little or nothing about whether the equation will forecast accurately are omitted. Practical hints about how to build a forecasting equation that works are given much higher priority than extended discussion about properties of normal distributions.