#WinBUGS 1.3 program

model
{


#META-ANALYSES
#Response rate for Docetaxel 

for( i in 1 : 4 ) 
{
rt.rsprtD[i] ~ dbin(pt.rsprtD[i], nt.rsprtD[i])
logit(pt.rsprtD[i]) <- d.rsprtD[i]
d.rsprtD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.rsprtD,tau.rsprtD)
}
mu.rsprtD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.rsprtD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.rsprtD <- 1/tau.rsprtD
temp1D <- exp(mu.rsprtD)
p.rsprtD <- temp1D/(1+temp1D)
		
#Response rate for Doxorubicin
		
for( i in 1 : 2 )
{
rt.rsprtC[i] ~ dbin(pt.rsprtC[i], nt.rsprtC[i])
logit(pt.rsprtC[i]) <- d.rsprtC[i]
d.rsprtC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.rsprtC,tau.rsprtC)
}
mu.rsprtC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.rsprtC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.rsprtC<- 1/tau.rsprtC
temp1C <- exp(mu.rsprtC)
p.rsprtC <- temp1C/(1+temp1C)
		
#Probability of discontinuing for DOCETAXEL

for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
rt.disD[i] ~ dbin(pt.disD[i], nt.disD[i])
logit(pt.disD[i]) <- d.disD[i]
d.disD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.disD,tau.disD)
}
mu.disD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.disD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.disD <- 1/tau.disD
temp.disD <- exp(mu.disD)
p.disD <- temp.disD/(1+temp.disD)
tpToxAdD <- 1-pow((1-p.disD),(1/4))
	
#Probability of discontinuing for DOXORUBICIN
		
for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.disC[i] ~ dbin(pt.disC[i], nt.disC[i])
logit(pt.disC[i]) <- d.disC[i]
d.disC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.disC,tau.disC)
}
mu.disC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.disC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.disC <- 1/tau.disC
temp.disC <- exp(mu.disC)
p.disC <- temp.disC/(1+temp.disC)
tpToxAdC <- 1-pow((1-p.disC),(1/4))
		
#Probability of infection for DOCETAXEL
		
for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
rt.infD[i] ~ dbin(pt.infD[i], nt.infD[i])
logit(pt.infD[i]) <- d.infD[i]
d.infD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.infD,tau.infD)
}
mu.infD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.infD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.infD <- 1/tau.infD
temp.infD <- exp(mu.infD)
p.infD <- temp.infD/(1+temp.infD)
tpInfectD <- 1-pow((1-p.infD),(1/2))
		
#Probability of infection for DOXORUBICIN
		
rt.infC ~ dbin(pt.infC, nt.infC)
logit(pt.infC) <- d.infC
d.infC ~  dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
temp.infC <- exp(d.infC)
p.infC <- temp.infC/(1+temp.infC)
tpInfectC <- 1-pow((1-p.infC),(1/2))
	
#Probability of dying from infection for DOCETAXEL
		
rt.dieD ~ dbin(pt.dieD, nt.dieD)
logit(pt.dieD) <- d.dieD
d.dieD ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.dieD <- exp(d.dieD)
p.dieD <- temp.dieD/(1+temp.dieD)
tpHdieD <- 1-pow((1-p.dieD),(1/2))
	
#Probability of dying from infection for DOXORUBICIN
			
for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.dieC[i] ~ dbin(pt.dieC[i], nt.dieC[i])
logit(pt.dieC[i]) <- d.dieC[i]
d.dieC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.dieC,tau.dieC)
}
mu.dieC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.dieC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.dieC <- 1/tau.dieC
temp.dieC <- exp(mu.dieC)
p.dieC <- temp.dieC/(1+temp.dieC)
tpHdieC <- 1-pow((1-p.dieC),(1/2))
	
#Probability hospitalised DOCETAXEL
	
rt.hspD ~ dbin(pt.hspD, nt.hspD)
logit(pt.hspD) <- d.hspD
d.hspD ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.hspD <- exp(d.hspD)
p.hspD <- temp.hspD/(1+temp.hspD)
tpHospD <- 1-pow((1-p.hspD),(1/2))
	
#Probability hospitalised DOXORUBICIN
          			
prec.hspC<-(1/(0.1931893*0.1931893))
rt.hspC <-2
nt.hspC <-100
rt.hspC~dbin(pt.hspC, nt.hspC)
logit(pt.hspC) <- d.hspC
d.hspC ~ dnorm(delta.hspC, prec.hspC)
delta.hspC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
temp.hspC <- exp(delta.hspC)
p.hspC <- temp.hspC/(1+temp.hspC)
tpHospC <- 1-pow((1-p.hspC),(1/2))
				
#Probability of Adverse events DOCETAXEL
#Neutropenia
			
for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.nD[i] ~ dbin(pt.nD[i], nt.nD[i])
logit(pt.nD[i]) <- d.nD[i]
d.nD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.nD,tau.nD)
}	
mu.nD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.nD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.nD <- 1/tau.nD
temp.nD <- exp(mu.nD)
p.nD <- temp.nD/(1+temp.nD)
tpToxND <- 1-pow((1-p.nD),(1/4))
		
#Anemia

for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.aD[i] ~ dbin(pt.aD[i], nt.aD[i])
logit(pt.aD[i]) <- d.aD[i]
d.aD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.aD,tau.aD)
}
mu.aD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.aD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.aD <- 1/tau.aD
temp.aD <- exp(mu.aD)
p.aD <- temp.aD/(1+temp.aD)
tpToxAD <- 1-pow((1-p.aD),(1/4))
		
#Diarrhea

for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
rt.dD[i] ~ dbin(pt.dD[i], nt.dD[i])
logit(pt.dD[i]) <- d.dD[i]
d.dD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.dD,tau.dD)
}
mu.dD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.dD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.dD <- 1/tau.dD
temp.dD <- exp(mu.dD)
p.dD <- temp.dD/(1+temp.dD)
tpToxDD <- 1-pow((1-p.dD),(1/4))
	
#Stomatis
	
for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
rt.sD[i] ~ dbin(pt.sD[i], nt.sD[i])
logit(pt.sD[i]) <- d.sD[i]
d.sD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.sD,tau.sD)
}
mu.sD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.sD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.sD <- 1/tau.sD
temp.sD <- exp(mu.sD)
p.sD <- temp.sD/(1+temp.sD)
tpToxSD <- 1-pow((1-p.sD),(1/4))
		
#Vomitting
		
for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.vD[i] ~ dbin(pt.vD[i], nt.vD[i])
logit(pt.vD[i]) <- d.vD[i]
d.vD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.vD,tau.vD)
}
mu.vD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.vD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.vD <- 1/tau.vD
temp.vD <- exp(mu.vD)
p.vD <- temp.vD/(1+temp.vD)
tpToxVD <- 1-pow((1-p.vD),(1/4))
	
#Fluid retention
		
for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
rt.frD[i] ~ dbin(pt.frD[i], nt.frD[i])
logit(pt.frD[i]) <- d.frD[i]
d.frD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.frD,tau.frD)
}
mu.frD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.frD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.frD <- 1/tau.frD
temp.frD <- exp(mu.frD)
p.frD <- temp.frD/(1+temp.frD)
tpToxFRD <- 1-pow((1-p.frD),(1/4))
		
#CHF 
	
rt.ctD ~ dbin(pt.ctD, nt.ctD)
logit(pt.ctD) <- d.ctD
d.ctD ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.ctD <- exp(d.ctD)
p.ctD <- temp.ctD/(1+temp.ctD)
tpToxCTD <- 1-pow((1-pt.ctD),(1/4))
		
#Probability of Adverse events DOXORUBICIN
#Neutropenia
	
rt.nC ~ dbin(pt.nC, nt.nC)
logit(pt.nC) <- d.nC
d.nC ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.nC <- exp(d.nC)
p.nC <- temp.nC/(1+temp.nC)
tpToxNC <- 1-pow((1-p.nC),(1/4))
			
#Anemia
	
rt.aC ~ dbin(pt.aC, nt.aC)
logit(pt.aC) <- d.aC
d.aC ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.aC <- exp(d.aC)
p.aC <- temp.aC/(1+temp.aC)
tpToxAC <- 1-pow((1-p.aC),(1/4))
			
#Diarrhea

for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.dC[i] ~ dbin(pt.dC[i], nt.dC[i])
logit(pt.dC[i]) <- d.dC[i]
d.dC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.dC,tau.dC)
}
mu.dC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.dC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.dC <- 1/tau.dC
temp.dC <- exp(mu.dC)
p.dC <- temp.dC/(1+temp.dC)
tpToxDC <- 1-pow((1-p.dC),(1/4))
	
#Stomatis
		
rt.sC ~ dbin(pt.sC, nt.sC)
logit(pt.sC) <- d.sC
d.sC ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.sC <- exp(d.sC)
p.sC <- temp.aC/(1+temp.sC)
tpToxSC <- 1-pow((1-p.sC),(1/4))
			
#Vomitting
	
for( i in 1 : 2 ) {
rt.vC[i] ~ dbin(pt.vC[i], nt.vC[i])
logit(pt.vC[i]) <- d.vC[i]
d.vC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.vC,tau.vC)
}
mu.vC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.vC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.vC <- 1/tau.vC
temp.vC <- exp(mu.vC)
p.vC <- temp.vC/(1+temp.vC)
tpToxVC <- 1-pow((1-p.vC),(1/4))
	
#Fluid retention
	
rt.frC ~ dbin(pt.frC, nt.frC)
logit(pt.frC) <- d.frC
d.frC ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.frC <- exp(d.frC)
p.frC <- temp.frC/(1+temp.frC)
tpToxFRC <- 1-pow((1-p.frC),(1/4))
			
#CHF
	
for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
rt.ctC[i] ~ dbin(pt.ctC[i], nt.ctC[i])
logit(pt.ctC[i]) <- d.ctC[i]
d.ctC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.ctC,tau.ctC)
}
mu.ctC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)
tau.ctC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.ctC <- 1/tau.ctC
temp.ctC <- exp(mu.ctC)
p.ctC <- temp.ctC/(1+temp.ctC)
tpToxCTC <- 1-pow((1-p.ctC),(1/4))

#Probability of transition into progressive in cycle 3 for DOCETAXEL

rt.prg1D ~ dbin(pt.prg1D, nt.prg1D)
logit(pt.prg1D) <- d.prg1D
d.prg1D ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.prg1D <- exp(d.prg1D)
p.prg1D <- temp.prg1D/(1+temp.prg1D)
tpProgD <- 1-pow((1-p.prg1D),(1/1))

#Probability of transition into progressive in cycle 3 for DOXORUBICIN

rt.prg1C ~ dbin(pt.prg1C, nt.prg1C)
logit(pt.prg1C) <- d.prg1C
d.prg1C ~ dnorm(0,1.0E-6)
temp.prg1C <- exp(d.prg1C)
p.prg1C <- temp.prg1C/(1+temp.prg1C)
tpProgC <- 1-pow((1-p.prg1C),(1/1))
		
#Time to progression for Docetaxel

for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
prec.prgD[i] <-1/(se.prgD[i]*se.prgD[i])
prgD[i] ~ dnorm(delta.prgD[i],prec.prgD[i])
delta.prgD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.prgD,tau.prgD)
}
mu.prgD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(0,)
tau.prgD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.prgD <- 1/tau.prgD

#Median time from stable to progressive

PcohortD <- log(-log(0.5)/(mu.prgD))
PrespD <- log(-log(0.5)/(stbrpD+resptimD))
PnrespD <- (PcohortD-PrespD)/(1-p.rsprtD)
TimprgD <- -log(0.5)/(exp(PrespD+PnrespD))
tpStbPgD <- 1-exp(-1/(TimprgD/3))

#Time to progression for Doxorubicin
	
for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
prec.prgC[i] <-1/(se.prgC[i]*se.prgC[i])
prgC[i] ~ dnorm(delta.prgC[i],prec.prgC[i])
delta.prgC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.prgC,tau.prgC)
}
mu.prgC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(0,)
tau.prgC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.prgC <- 1/tau.prgC

#Median time from stable to progressive

PcohortC <- log(-log(0.5)/(mu.prgC))
PrespC <- log(-log(0.5)/(stbrpC+resptimC))
PnrespC <- (PcohortC-PrespC)/(1-p.rsprtC)
TimprgC <- -log(0.5)/(exp(PrespC+PnrespC))
tpStbPgC <- 1-exp(-1/(TimprgC/3))

#Median time to response for DOCETAXEL

prec.stbrpD <-1/(3*3)
stbrpD <-12
stbrpD~ dnorm (delta.stbrpD, prec.stbrpD)
delta.stbrpD ~dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(0,)
temp.a <--log(0.5)/(delta.stbrpD/3)
tpStbRpD <- 1-exp(-temp.a) 

#Median time to response for DOXORUBICIN

prec.stbrpC <-1/(3*3)
stbrpC <-23
stbrpC~ dnorm (delta.stbrpC, prec.stbrpC)
delta.stbrpC ~dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(0,)
temp.b <--log(0.5)/(delta.stbrpC/3)
tpStbRpC <- 1-exp(-temp.b) 

#Median time in response for DOCETAXEL

prec.rspprD <-1/(3.058*3.058)
resptimD <-34.67
resptimD~ dnorm (delta.rspprD, prec.rspprD)
delta.rspprD ~dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(0,)
temp.c <--log(0.5)/(delta.rspprD/3)
tpRpPgD <- 1-exp(-temp.c) 

#Median time in response for DOXORUBICIN

prec.rspprC <-1/(3.058*3.058)
resptimC <-40
resptimC ~ dnorm (delta.rspprC, prec.rspprC)
delta.rspprC ~dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(0,)
temp.d <--log(0.5)/(delta.rspprC/3)
tpRpPgC <- 1-exp(-temp.d) 

#Median survival time for DOCETAXEL

for( i in 1 : 3 ) 
{
prec.surD[i] <-1/(se.surD[i]*se.surD[i])
surD[i] ~ dnorm(delta.surD[i],prec.surD[i])
delta.surD[i] ~ dnorm(mu.surD,tau.surD)
}
mu.surD ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(mu.prgD,)
tau.surD ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.surD <- 1/tau.surD

#Median survival time for DOXORUBICIN

for( i in 1 : 2 ) 
{
prec.surC[i] <-1/(se.surC[i]*se.surC[i])
surC[i] ~ dnorm(delta.surC[i],prec.surC[i])
delta.surC[i] ~ dnorm(mu.surC,tau.surC)
}
mu.surC ~ dnorm(0.0,1.0E-6)I(mu.prgC,)
tau.surC ~ dgamma(0.001,0.001)
var.surC <- 1/tau.surC

#Median time in progressive for DOCETAXEL

tim.prgD <- mu.surD-mu.prgD
temp.e <--log(0.5)/(tim.prgD/3)
tpDiePgD <- 1-exp(-temp.e)
	
#Median time in progressive for DOXORUBICIN

tim.prgC <- mu.surC-mu.prgC
temp.f <--log(0.5)/(tim.prgC/3)
tpDiePgC <- 1-exp(-temp.f)

#MARKOV MODEL
#Initial values for Markov Model 

SurvivC[1] <- numpt
SurvivD[1] <- numpt
DeathC[1] <-0
DeathD[1] <-0
CumCostC[1] <-0
CumUtilC[1] <-0
CumCostD[1] <-0
CumUtilD[1] <-0

#############################STAGE 1##################################

for (i in 2 :3) 
{

#Number of individuals in each state for Doxorubicin

DeathC[i] <- tpInfectC * tpHospC * tpHdieC * SurvivC[i-1] + DeathC[i-1]
SurvivC[i] <- SurvivC[1] - DeathC[i]

#Cost for Doxorubicin

DrgCostC[i] <- SurvivC[i] * (cDrugC+cHosp*hTimC+cPremedC)
ToxCostC[i] <- 0
InfCostC[i] <- SurvivC[i] * tpInfectC * (cInfectH * tpHospC + (1 - tpHospC) * cInfectNH)
TotCostC[i] <- DrgCostC[i] + ToxCostC[i] + InfCostC[i]
CumCostC[i] <- CumCostC[i-1] + TotCostC[i] 

#Quality adjusted utility for Doxorubicin

UtRespC[i] <- 0
UtStabC[i] <- SurvivC[i] * ((uStbHsp * tpInfectC * tpHospC * (1-tpHdieC))+(uStbNhsp * tpInfectC * (1-tpHospC)) + (uStable* (1-(tpInfectC))))
UtProgC[i] <-0
UtilC[i] <- UtRespC[i] +UtStabC[i] +UtProgC[i]
CumUtilC[i] <- CumUtilC[i-1]+UtilC[i]

#Number of individuals in each state for Docetaxel

DeathD[i] <- tpInfectD*tpHospD *tpHdieD *SurvivD[i-1] +DeathD[i-1]
SurvivD[i] <- SurvivD[1]- DeathD[i]

#Cost for Docetaxel

DrgCostD[i] <- SurvivD[i]* (cDrugD+cHosp* hTimD+ cPremedD)
ToxCostD[i] <- 0
InfCostD[i] <- SurvivD[i]* tpInfectD* (cInfectH*tpHospD+ (1-tpHospD)* cInfectNH)
TotCostD[i] <- DrgCostD[i]+ ToxCostD[i]+ InfCostD[i]
CumCostD[i] <- CumCostD[i-1]+ TotCostD[i] 

#Quality adjusted utility for Docetaxel

UtRespD[i] <-0
UtStabD[i] <- SurvivD[i]*((uStbHsp* tpInfectD* tpHospD*(1-tpHdieD)) +(uStbNhsp*tpInfectD* (1-tpHospD)) +(uStable*(1-(tpInfectD))))
UtProgD[i] <- 0
UtilD[i] <- UtRespD[i]+ UtStabD[i]+ UtProgD[i]
CumUtilD[i] <- CumUtilD[i-1]+UtilD[i]

}

############################STAGE 2####################################

for (i in 4:4)
{

#Number of individuals in each state for Doxorubicin

RespC[i] <- tpStbRpC*SurvivC[i-1]
StableC[i] <- (1-(tpStbRpC+tpProgC)) *SurvivC[i-1]
ProgC[i] <-tpProgC*SurvivC[i-1]
DeathC[i] <-DeathC[i-1]

#Cost for Doxorubicin

DrgCostC[i] <- (RespC[i]+StableC[i]) *(cDrugC+cHosp* hTimC+ cPremedC)
ToxCostC[i] <- 0
InfCostC[i] <- 0
ProgCstC[i] <- ProgC[i]*cProg
TotCostC[i] <- DrgCostC[i]+ToxCostC[i] +InfCostC[i] +ProgCstC[i]
CumCostC[i] <- CumCostC[i-1]+ TotCostC[i] 

#Quality adjusted utility for Doxorubicin

UtRespC[i] <-uRespond*RespC[i]
UtStabC[i] <-  uStable*StableC[i]
UtProgC[i] <- uProg*ProgC[i]
UtilC[i] <- UtRespC[i]+UtStabC[i]+ UtProgC[i]
CumUtilC[i] <- CumUtilC[i-1]+ UtilC[i]


#Number of individuals in each state for Docetaxel

RespD[i] <- tpStbRpD*SurvivD[i-1]
StableD[i] <- (1-(tpStbRpD+tpProgD))* SurvivD[i-1]
ProgD[i] <- tpProgD*SurvivD[i-1]
DeathD[i] <-DeathD[i-1]

#Cost for Docetaxel

DrgCostD[i] <- (RespD[i]+StableD[i])* (cDrugD+cHosp* hTimD+ cPremedD)
ToxCostD[i] <- 0
InfCostD[i] <- 0
ProgCstD[i] <- ProgD[i]*cProg
TotCostD[i] <- DrgCostD[i]+ ToxCostD[i]+InfCostD[i] +ProgCstD[i]
CumCostD[i] <- CumCostD[i-1]+TotCostD[i] 

#Quality adjusted  utility for Docetaxel

UtRespD[i] <-uRespond*RespD[i]
UtStabD[i] <- uStable*StableD[i] 
UtProgD[i] <- uProg*ProgD[i]
UtilD[i] <- UtRespD[i]+UtStabD[i]+ UtProgD[i]
CumUtilD[i] <- CumUtilD[i-1]+UtilD[i]

}

#######################STAGE 3########################################

for (i in 5:8)
{

#Number of individuals in each state for Doxorubicin

RespC[i] <- (1-(tpToxAdC))*tpRespC* RespC[i-1] +(1-(tpToxAdC)) *tpStbRpC *StableC[i-1]
StableC[i] <- (1-(tpToxAdC)) *tpStableC *StableC[i-1]
ProgC[i] <- ((tpToxAdC)*(RespC[i-1] +StableC[i-1])) +((1-(tpToxAdC)) *tpRpPgC*RespC[i-1]) + ((1-(tpToxAdC)) *tpStbPgC* StableC[i-1]) + tpProg1C*ProgC[i-1]
DeathC[i] <- DeathC[i-1]+ProgC[i-1]* tpDiePgC

#Cost for Doxorubicin

DrgCostC[i] <- (RespC[i]+StableC[i])* (cDrugC+cHosp* hTimC+ cPremedC)
ToxCostC[i] <- (RespC[i]+StableC[i]) *((tpToxAdC* cToxAd)
+(cToxN*tpToxNC+cToxA*tpToxAC+ cToxD*tpToxDC+ cToxS*tpToxSC+cToxV* tpToxVC+cToxFR* tpToxFRC+cToxCT* tpToxCTC))
InfCostC[i] <- 0
ProgCstC[i] <- ProgC[i]* cProg
TotCostC[i] <- DrgCostC[i]+ToxCostC[i]+ InfCostC[i]+ProgCstC[i]
CumCostC[i] <- CumCostC[i-1]+ TotCostC[i] 

#Quality adjusted  utility for Doxorubicin

UtRespC[i] <- RespC[i]* ((uRespond*(1-(tpToxNC+ tpToxAC+tpToxDC+ tpToxSC+tpToxVC+tpToxFRC+ tpToxCTC)))+ (uRespTox*(tpToxNC+ tpToxAC+tpToxDC+tpToxSC+ tpToxVC+tpToxFRC+ tpToxCTC)))
UtStabC[i] <-StableC[i]*((uStable*(1-(tpToxNC+ tpToxAC+tpToxDC+ tpToxSC+tpToxVC+ tpToxFRC+tpToxCTC))) +(uStabTox*(tpToxNC+ tpToxAC+tpToxDC+tpToxSC+ tpToxVC+tpToxFRC+tpToxCTC)))
UtProgC[i] <-(ProgC[i]* ((uProg*(1-tpToxAdC))+ (uProgTox*tpToxAdC))) 
UtilC[i] <- UtRespC[i] + UtStabC[i]+UtProgC[i]
CumUtilC[i] <- CumUtilC[i-1]+UtilC[i]

#Number of individuals in each state for Docetaxel

RespD[i] <- (1-(tpToxAdD))* tpRespD*RespD[i-1]+ (1-(tpToxAdD))*tpStbRpD*StableD[i-1]
StableD[i] <- (1-(tpToxAdD))*tpStableD* StableD[i-1]
ProgD[i] <- ((tpToxAdD)*(RespD[i-1]+StableD[i-1]))+ ((1-(tpToxAdD))*tpRpPgD*RespD[i-1]) +((1-(tpToxAdD))*tpStbPgD*StableD[i-1]) + tpProg1D* ProgD[i-1]
DeathD[i] <- DeathD[i-1]+ProgD[i-1]* tpDiePgD

#Cost for Docetaxel

DrgCostD[i] <- (RespD[i]+StableD[i])* (cDrugD+cHosp*hTimD+cPremedD)
ToxCostD[i] <- (RespD[i]+StableD[i])* ((tpToxAdD*cToxAd)
+(cToxN*tpToxND+cToxA*tpToxAD+cToxD* tpToxDD+cToxS*tpToxSD+cToxV* tpToxVD+cToxFR* tpToxFRD+cToxCT*tpToxCTD))
InfCostD[i] <- 0
ProgCstD[i] <- ProgD[i]*cProg
TotCostD[i] <- DrgCostD[i]+ToxCostD[i]+ InfCostD[i]+ProgCstD[i]
CumCostD[i] <- CumCostD[i-1]+TotCostD[i] 

#Quality adjusted utility for Docetaxel

UtRespD[i] <-  RespD[i]*((uRespond*(1-(tpToxND+tpToxAD+ tpToxDD+tpToxSD+tpToxVD+ tpToxFRD+tpToxCTD)))+(uRespTox* (tpToxND+tpToxAD+ tpToxDD+tpToxSD+ tpToxVD+tpToxFRD+tpToxCTD)))
UtStabD[i] <-StableD[i]*((uStable*(1-(tpToxND+ tpToxAD+tpToxDD+ tpToxSD+tpToxVD+tpToxFRD+ tpToxCTD)))+(uStabTox*(tpToxND+tpToxAD+ tpToxDD+tpToxSD+tpToxVD+tpToxFRD+ tpToxCTD)))

UtProgD[i] <-(ProgD[i]*((uProg*(1- tpToxAdD))+(uProgTox *tpToxAdD))) 
UtilD[i] <- UtRespD[i]+UtStabD[i]+ UtProgD[i]
CumUtilD[i] <- CumUtilD[i-1]+ UtilD[i]

}

########################STAGE 4###################################

for (i in 9 :end)
{

#Number of individuals in each state for Doxorubicin

RespC[i] <- RespC[i-1]*tpRespC+StableC[i-1] *tpStbRpC
StableC[i] <- StableC[i-1]*(tpStableC)
ProgC[i] <- tpProg1C*ProgC[i-1]+tpStbPgC* StableC[i-1]+ tpRpPgC* RespC[i-1]
DeathC[i] <- DeathC[i-1]+ProgC[i-1]* tpDiePgC

#Cost for Doxorubicin

ProgCstC[i] <-ProgC[i]*cProg+(StableC[i]+ RespC[i])*Ind[i]* cStbRsp+(StableC[i]+ RespC[i])*cGP
TotCostC[i] <- ProgCstC[i]
CumCostC[i] <- CumCostC[i-1]+ TotCostC[i] 

#Quality adjusted utility for Doxorubicin

UtRespC[i] <-uRespond*RespC[i]
UtStabC[i] <- uStable*StableC[i]
UtProgC[i] <- uProg*ProgC[i]
UtilC[i] <- UtRespC[i]+UtStabC[i]+ UtProgC[i]
CumUtilC[i] <- CumUtilC[i-1]+ UtilC[i]

#Number of individuals in each state for Docetaxel

RespD[i] <- RespD[i-1]*tpRespD+ StableD[i-1]*tpStbRpD
StableD[i] <- StableD[i-1]* tpStableD
ProgD[i] <- tpProg1D*ProgD[i-1]+ tpStbPgD*StableD[i-1]+ tpRpPgD*RespD[i-1]
DeathD[i] <- DeathD[i-1]+ProgD[i-1]* tpDiePgD

#Cost for Docetaxel

ProgCstD[i] <-ProgD[i]*cProg+(StableD[i]+RespD[i])* Ind[i]*cStbRsp+(StableD[i]+ RespD[i])*cGP
TotCostD[i] <- ProgCstD[i]
CumCostD[i] <- CumCostD[i-1]+ TotCostD[i] 

#Quality adjusted utility for Docetaxel

UtRespD[i] <-uRespond*RespD[i]
UtStabD[i] <- uStable*StableD[i]
UtProgD[i] <- uProg*ProgD[i]
UtilD[i] <- UtRespD[i]+UtStabD[i]+ UtProgD[i]
CumUtilD[i] <- CumUtilD[i-1]+UtilD[i]

}

#Distributions for transitional probabilities

tpStableC <- 1-tpStbRpC-tpStbPgC
tpProg1C <- 1-tpDiePgC
tpRespC <- 1-tpRpPgC

tpStableD <- 1-tpStbRpD-tpStbPgD
tpProg1D <- 1-tpDiePgD
tpRespD <- 1-tpRpPgD

#Distributions for utilities

uStabl1 ~ dbeta(33.722834,18.347468)
uStable <-uStabl1/(52/3)

uStbHp1 ~ dbeta(86.390047,109.769)
uStbHsp <-uStbHp1/(52/3)

uStbNhp1 ~ dbeta(28.218669,18.748545)
uStbNhsp <-uStbNhp1/(52/3)

uRespd1 ~ dbeta(408.9263,92.892945)
uRespond <-uRespd1/(52/3)

uRespTx1 ~dbeta(414.87197,155.89096)
uRespTox <-uRespTx1/(52/3)

uStabTx1 ~dbeta(886.85476,770.61463)
uStabTox <-uStabTx1/(52/3)

uProg1 ~ dbeta(74.131473,90.605134)
uProg <- uProg1/(52/3)

uProgTx1 ~ dbeta(31.5,58.5)
uProgTox <-uProgTx1/(52/3)

#Distributions for cost where appropriate

cInfectH ~ dnorm(882,0.00090342977)I(34,8115)
cToxFR ~ dnorm(1080,0.00165784)I(87,8803.5)
cToxCT ~ dnorm(1151,0.00196726)I(62.5,13326.5)

cProg<-364.709887
cStbRsp<-147.485868
cDrugC<- 4*93.6*1.175
cDrugD<-1150*1.175
cHosp<-24
cPremedC<-0
cPremedD<-((1.73/20)*1.175)*8*3
cToxN<-1419*0.6652
cToxA<-780*0.6652
cToxD<-197*0.6652
cToxS<-548*0.6652
cToxV<-553*0.6652
cToxAd<-(cToxCT+cToxFR)/2
cGP<-19.50
cInfectNH<-38.51*1.175*5

#Average cost and average QALYs per person
#Doxoburicin

CostindC <- CumCostC[end]/numpt
UtilindC <- CumUtilC[end]/numpt

#Docetaxel

CostindD <- CumCostD[end]/numpt
UtilindD <- CumUtilD[end]/numpt

#Incremental costs

IncCost <- CostindD-CostindC
IncUtil <- UtilindD-UtilindC

#Netbenefit and acceptability curve

for (k in 1:N)
{
ProbCE[k]<-step(K[k]*(IncUtil)-(IncCost))
Netbenefit[k]<-K[k]*(IncUtil)-(IncCost)
}

}

Data

list(rt.rsprtD=c(77,61,61,25), nt.rsprtD=c(161,203,143,46), 
rt.rsprtC=c(55,42), nt.rsprtC=c(165,118), 
rt.disD=c(28,14,41), nt.disD=c(203,161,143), 
rt.disC=c(26, 21), nt.disC=c(165, 118),
rt.infD=c(41, 14, 41), nt.infD=c(203, 161, 143),
rt.dieC=c(1,3), nt.dieC=c(165, 118),
rt.nD=c(189,151), nt.nD=c(203, 161),
rt.aD=c(6,3), nt.aD=c(161,143),
rt.dD=c(15,17,14), nt.dD=c(203,161,143),
rt.sD=c(18, 8,13), nt.sD=c(203,161,143),
rt.vD=c(5,5), nt.vD=c(203,161),
rt.frD=c(16,8,4), nt.frD=c(203,161,143),
rt.dC=c(4,2), nt.dC=c(118,165),
rt.vC=c(9,20), nt.vC=c(118,165),
rt.ctC=c(6,9), nt.ctC=c(118,165),
rt.dieD=1, nt.dieD=161,
rt.infC=27, nt.infC=165,
rt.hspD=29, nt.hspD=377,
rt.ctD=1, nt.ctD=161,
rt.nC=147, nt.nC=165,
rt.aC=27, nt.aC=165,
rt.sC=20, nt.sC=165,
rt.frC=1, nt.frC=165,
prgD=c(19,26,27.3), se.prgD=c(2.048,2.263,1.631), prgC=c(23, 21), se.prgC=c(4.077, 1.943), surD=c(47.67,65,45.07), se.surD=c(4.845,5.171,2.174), surC=c(60.6666667,47), se.surC=c(3.9723602, 5.688053958),
rt.prg1D=20, nt.prg1D=161,
rt.prg1C=37, nt.prg1C=165, numpt=1000, end=36, hTimC=0.33, hTimD=1, Ind=c(0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1), N=12, K=c(0,10000,50000,100000,150000,200000,250000,300000,350000,400000,450000,500000))


inits

list(mu.rsprtD=0,tau.rsprtD=0.1,d.rsprtD=c(0,0,0,0), 
mu.rsprtC=0, tau.rsprtC=0.1,d.rsprtC=c(0,0), 
mu.disD=0,tau.disD=0.1,d.disD=c(0,0,0), 
mu.disC=0,tau.disC=0.1,d.disC=c(0,0),
mu.infD=0,tau.infD=0.1,d.infD=c(0,0,0),
mu.dieC=0,tau.dieC=0.1,d.dieC=c(0,0),
delta.rspprD=0, delta.stbrpD=0, delta.hspC=0, d.hspC=0,
delta.rspprC=0, delta.stbrpC=0,
d.dieD=0, d.infC=0, d.hspD=0, d.ctD=0, d.nC=0, d.aC=0, d.sC=0,d.frC=0, d.prg1C=0, d.prg1D=0,
mu.nD=0,tau.nD=0.1,d.nD=c(0,0),
mu.aD=0,tau.aD=0.1,d.aD=c(0,0),
mu.dD=0,tau.dD=0.1,d.dD=c(0,0,0),
mu.sD=0,tau.sD=0.1,d.sD=c(0,0,0),
mu.vD=0,tau.vD=0.1,d.vD=c(0,0),
mu.frD=0,tau.frD=0.1,d.frD=c(0,0,0),
mu.dC=0,tau.dC=0.1,d.dC=c(0,0),
mu.vC=0,tau.vC=0.1,d.vC=c(0,0),
mu.ctC=0,tau.ctC=0.1,d.ctC=c(0,0),
mu.prgD=0,tau.prgD=0.1,delta.prgD=c(0,0,0), mu.prgC=0,tau.prgC=0.1,delta.prgC=c(0,0), mu.surD=0,tau.surD=0.1,delta.surD=c(0,0,0), mu.surC=0,tau.surC=0.1,delta.surC=c(0,0), uStabl1=0.1, uStbHp1=0.1, uStbNhp1=0.1, uRespd1=0.1, uRespTx1=0.1, uStabTx1=0.1, uProgTx1=0.1, uProg1=0.1, cInfectH=100, cToxFR=100, cToxCT=100)