Forecast modelling for prediction of hepatitisB and hepatitisC seropositivity among Libyan population

Abstract number: P1123

Shabash A., Habas M., Alhajrasi A., Furarah A., Bouzedi A., Daw M.

Blood born hepatitis (HBV, HCV) is a major health problem particularly among developing countries. Hence then specific strategies have to be implemented to overcome such problem. In Libya national strategies has been developed to overcome such problem.

Objectives of this study were to: 1) determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and C seropositivity among healthy Libyan population; 2) implement a new model for short and long term forecasting of HBV and HCV seropositivity; 3) outline the major steps to reduce the risk of such viruses.

Methods: Data of hepatitis B surface antigen and HCV antibody screening for 100,8214 person were reviewed between 2003–2008 at three main laboratories in Tripoli Libya using ELISA test. The data subjected to forecasting function of excel 2007 to predict the number of seropositive patient after 2, 5 and 10 years.

Results: Of the total patients studied: 19878 (1.97%) were HBV positive, and 17087 (1.77%) were HCV positive during the study period. The prevalence of HBV seropositivity were decreased during the study period from 3.5% on 2003 to 1.8% on 2008, while HCV prevalence decreased from 2.6% on 2003 to 1.5% on 2005 though it was 1.8% on 2006, and 1.7% during the last two years. The prevalence of HBV were more than that of HCV throughout the study. Using the forecasting function test of excel the predicted number of HBV seropositive person after two, five and ten years in comparison to 2008 (2010:2008, 2013:2008, 2018:2008) the ratio were 1.5:1, 2:1, 2.5:1, while the expected HCV positive person ratio were 1.5:1, 2:1, 2.8:1.

Conclusion: Our study reveal that, HBV and HCV infection was an alarming problem among Libyan. Further evaluation is needed to determine possible new strategies to control the spread of infection, forecast model was valuable in highlighting such problem. In addition assessment of effectiveness and continuity of the previous preventive measures like vaccination and education programs is mandatory.

Session Details

Date: 10/04/2010
Time: 00:00-00:00
Session name: Abstracts 20th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases
Location: Vienna, Austria, 10 - 13 April 2010
Presentation type:
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