Meterological effects on the incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia in Denmark
Abstract number: R2519
Tvedebrink T., Lundbye-Christensen S., Thomsen R.W., Dethlefsen C., Schønheyder H.C.
Objectives: The seasonal nature of invasive pneumococcal disease with peak incidences during the winter months is well recognised. However, few detailed studies of the possible temporal relationship between actual climatic changes and subsequent pneumococcal disease are available.
Methods: We performed an 8-year longitudinal population-based ecological study in a Danish county to examine whether foregoing changes in climatic parameters, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind velocity, predicted variations in pneumococcal bacteraemia (PB) incidence. We fitted harmonic sinusoidal models to estimate the exact phase difference in days between climatic changes and PB activity.
Results: There was a close inverse relationship between temperature changes and PB incidence, with an observed time lag of 16 days between temperature peaks and troughs and PB activity (Figure). Peaks in relative humidity preceded PB peaks by about 2 months. These relationships were seen independently of a strong seasonal pattern of PB.
Conclusion: This study suggests that changes in temperature closely predict PB incidence peaks, independently of seasonal patterns.
|Session name:||18th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases|
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