Malaria cases in Turkey: do climatic changes play any role?
Abstract number: 1733_272
Ergönül Ö., Azap A., Akgündüz S.
Introduction: Malaria is one of the vector borne infectious diseases that was affected by climatic changes.
Objective: To demonstrate the effects of temperature and rainfall on malaria cases in Turkey.
Methods: The data was obtained from two sources: Number of the malaria cases in the last 30 years from the Ministry of Health (MOH) of Turkey and the changes in the temperature and rainfall in the last 70 years from The Research Unit in Turkish State Meteorological Service. Temperature and rainfall variations and trends for Turkey were analysed by using a data set including monthly averages of daily mean, and minimum temperatures. Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis (K-W) test was performed in order to detect homogeneity in mean annual series. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) rank correlation test was used to detect any possible trend in temperature series, and to test whether or not such trends are statistically significant. The Cramer test was used to detect the difference in temperature and rainfall between given time periods and the longer period.
Results: In recent 35 years, there were two important peaks of malaria cases in Turkey, one is at the 19771984 period, and the other is at the 19931999 period. The mean temperature in 19771987 period was significantly higher than mean temperature between 1930 and 2004 in some provinces where malaria incidence was high. Malaria cases increased in parallel to the increase in mean temperature within certain time intervals in certain provinces. Although no significant decrease in temperature was observed, the incidence of malaria has declined significantly after year 2000. Extensive control efforts implemented by local and governmental healthcare authorities might contribute to the decline of malaria cases. No association was found between rainfall and the incidence of malaria in any region for any time period.
Conclusion: Although climatic changes may play some role on the incidence of malaria, preventive efforts for controlling malaria have a substantial impact.
|Session name:||European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases|
|Location:||ICC, Munich, Germany|
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